How much photovoltaic to save the planet?
The question is by no means strange. For years we have been talking about climate change and the need for sustainable energy development but in practice how many photovoltaic panels will need to be produced to reach the fateful goal of zero emissions?
According to experts, some 100 giant solar panel factories must be built by 2025 for the world to "de-poison" its energy supply by 2035.
"We know the world needs to de-poison its energy systems," says Christian Breyer, a professor of solar economics at the LUT University of Lappeenranta, Finland, whose research group models the transition paths to future energy systems. zero emissions. "We need to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions, as quickly, safely and economically as possible, to do that, we need technologically feasible and cost-optimized transition paths for every region of the world. Our calculations show how we can do it".
The cost-optimized model of LUT, released in 2019, shows how a global energy system with zero net carbon emissions can be achieved. In the model, solar photovoltaic (PV) - solar panels - provides 69% of the total full-fledged primary energy demand in the year that zero emissions are achieved. The rest comes from wind power, biomass and waste, hydroelectricity and geothermal energy.
Its zero-emissions scenario does not include nuclear power because it is "just too expensive," Breyer points out. "Photovoltaic technology is becoming cheaper every year; the costs of building nuclear power plants, on the other hand, are increasing." Furthermore, it is much easier, faster and less risky to install and operate solar power plants.
Remaining cumulative CO2 budget for ĪT <1.5 Ā° relative to global warming.
Source: Statista.com /Contrain-Eu.org
When will the world stop burning fossil fuels?
The solar-powered model of the LUT researchers raises two questions.
First, by when does the globe have to reach net greenhouse gas emissions if we are to meet the internationally agreed goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F)?
Secondly, how many solar panel production plants must be built - and by when - to meet the two-thirds share of solar PV of all energy produced, if this climate goal is to be achieved?
Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds in the UK, tries to answer the question: how much more CO2 could cumulatively be pumped into the air if the target limit of 1.5C is to be met, without having to later make enormous efforts to remove CO2 out. air through costly geoengineering or carbon reduction measures?
His sobering answer: Since early 2021, to have a two-thirds chance of staying below 1.5 Ā° C, humanity can release - at most - 195 billion additional tons of CO2 (GtCO2 ) in the air, over the 1,700 GtCO2 already released since the beginning of the industrial revolution.
In 2019 alone, emissions were around 40 GtCO2. If emissions remain roughly at the same level over the next few years, which is very likely, the remaining CO2 budget will be exhausted by the end of 2025. After that, the world will be in carbon overhoot and on track. for very dangerous climate changes.
The implication? "We need to get zero emissions as soon as possible after 2025," says Breyer. "The current zero emissions target policy year is 2050. It's too late."
Climate-neutral energy system model in 2035: the dominance of solar photovoltaics is inevitable.
Source: LUT
The true cost of coal-fired energy
In order to avoid dangerous climate change and long-term sea-level rises, much of the carbon that is now released into the atmosphere will have to be withdrawn within the next few decades. It will be very expensive. It would be much cheaper to expand renewable energy systems faster and shut down coal-fired power plants earlier, Breyer says.
Here's why: Producing one MWh of coal-fired electricity causes around 1 metric ton of CO2 emissions. Actively removing CO2 from the air and storing it permanently could cost around ā¬ 100 ($ 122) per ton in the long run. By comparison, one MWh of electricity costs an average of ā¬ 33 on the power exchange in Germany in 2020.
This means that coal-fired energy is actually about four times more expensive than electricity from photovoltaic or wind power plants - or it would be if the financial costs of actively recovering and storing every ton of carbon released from burning fossil fuels included in the price of each MWh of coal-fired power, as long ago recommended by economists.
"This does not even include the health costs of heavy metal emissions from coal-fired power plants. In Germany alone, this pollution causes about 5,000 premature deaths each year and in Asia, nearly a million," Breyer says in a nod to expert estimates. of public health.
Global installed photovoltaic capacity 2020-2035
Source: LUT / Our World in Data
The solution: immediately build 100 giant photovoltaic factories
A thriving global zero-impact civilization with zero net emissions will be powered 90 percent by electricity, the LUT model estimates - partly directly, partly via synthetic fuels (e-fuels).
And 69% of this electricity will come from solar photovoltaics. How many giant PV module factories will be needed to realize that future - and by when will they have to be built?
It depends on how willing we are to exceed the carbon budget of 200 GtCO2 remaining in the world. Imagine a transition to a global system powered entirely by renewable energy by 2035 and assume that the new PV module factories will be operational by 2025, so that they can get the job done within 10 years.
The largest photovoltaic module factory in the world is currently under construction in the Chinese province of Anhui. According to its developer, GCL System Integration, it will have a production capacity of 60 GW per year. For comparison, global PV production capacity in 2020 was around 200 GW, most of it in China.
The LUT model predicts 78,000 GW of installed renewable electricity generation capacity globally when the world reaches net zero carbon emissions. This includes 63,400 GW of solar PV, of which approximately 8,800 GW in Europe.
Number of mega-factories of photovoltaic panels needed by geographical location according to the LUT model.
Source: LUT
Will we have built enough factories by 2024 to produce the required amount of solar panels by 2035? We won't even get close. Under current industry plans, by 2024, only 400 GW annual PV production capacity will be available and only about 1,500 GW of photovoltaic modules will have already been manufactured and installed worldwide. To achieve a zero-emission scenario by 2035 where two-thirds of global energy is produced from solar energy, an additional 62,000 GW of PV modules (62 terawatts) must be produced and installed between 2025 and 2035. This means 6,200 GW per year, every year from 2025 to 2035.
This means that to do justice to the climate challenge, we will need 15 times more production capacity by 2024 than currently planned. In other words, by 2024 we will have to build another 100 Gigafactories of the same size as the 60 GW Anhui PV module factory, for an annual production capacity of 6,000 GW. If Europe wants to produce its own photovoltaic modules, instead of importing them, 15 of these 100 gigantic factories must be located in Europe.
This aligns very well with Elon Musk's claim in 2016 that with around 100 Gigafactories PV, enough solar modules could be produced to power the full-fledged world.
What these numbers tell us is that a rapid expansion of renewable energy as a central element of a global zero-emissions race is technologically feasible. After all, it is certainly possible for humanity to build and operate 100 giant factories, 15 of which are in Europe. The crucial question we face is: will we finally take the warnings of climate scientists seriously, pick up our tools and get the job done?